题目：Modelling the Large-scale Yellow Fever Outbreak in Luanda, Angola, and the Impact of Vaccination
An epidemic model for yellow fever virus is formulated and used to study the 2016 yellow fever (YF) outbreak in Luanda, Angola. We explore the complex vector-host dynamics of this system taking into account mosquito abundance, vaccination and asymptomatic cases in the human population, that are generally not included in other modelling studies of YF. The model successfully fits existing time-series of weekly reported cases and deaths from YF during the epidemic. This allows us to study the impact of the vaccination campaign in Luanda and hypothetical delayed vaccination scenarios. The transmission of YF appeared to be oscillatory having a wave-like pattern in the basic reproduction number (R0). The oscillations are hypothesized to be due to human reaction to reported deaths, as has been noted for other human infectious diseases, and the second wave possibly due to El Nino rainfall patterns. We conclude that the lives saved due to the vaccination campaign before August 2016 should have been approximately 370 (five times more), and would have been far larger extrapolating beyond August 2016.
Copyright © 2018 同济大学数学科学学院 版权所有.