学术报告
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题目:Modelling the Large-scale Yellow Fever Outbreak in Luanda, Angola, and the Impact of Vaccination

报告人:何岱海 (香港理工大学)

地点:宁静楼110室

时间:2017年11月3日(星期五)14:00-14:50

报告摘要

An epidemic model for yellow fever virus is formulated and used to study the 2016 yellow fever (YF) outbreak in Luanda, Angola. We explore the complex vector-host dynamics of this system taking into account mosquito abundance, vaccination and asymptomatic cases in the human population, that are generally not included in other modelling studies of YF. The model successfully fits existing time-series of weekly reported cases and deaths from YF during the epidemic. This allows us to study the impact of the vaccination campaign in Luanda and hypothetical delayed vaccination scenarios. The transmission of YF appeared to be oscillatory having a wave-like pattern in the basic reproduction number (R0). The oscillations are hypothesized to be due to human reaction to reported deaths, as has been noted for other human infectious diseases, and the second wave possibly due to El Nino rainfall patterns. We conclude that the lives saved due to the vaccination campaign before August 2016 should have been approximately 370 (five times more), and would have been far larger extrapolating beyond August 2016.

个人简介:

何岱海,西安交通大学工学博士、加拿大麦克马斯特大学数学博士,曾在美国密歇根大学、以色列特拉维夫大学等名校做博士后研究,2012年至今在香港理工大学工作,何岱海博士是生物数学与理论流行病学领域的杰出学者,其事迹在国外被广泛报道。

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